Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10484

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10483, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10484
    26 Oct 2026, 04:26 UTC

    C1QC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionC1QC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb54aa9b41b1716f5

    discovery+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2591e762a9ec63ab719c3ca4…
    follows 2c2f00e89187…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10484: C1QC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C1QC in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.