Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10462

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.347). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10461, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10462
    26 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC

    GPR158

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPR158 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9dd7339c34d7b9bd

    discovery+0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    replication+0.43 p=0.253 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.347)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5206efe6ff0b0314ab6e4e17…
    follows 9cab35b60367…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10462: GPR158 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.45 (p 0.062, n 18), 95% CI -0.02 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.45 (p 0.062, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.38 to +0.67, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.45 (p 0.062, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPR158 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.