Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10446

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.81 p 0.0087; held-out +0.02 p 0.964). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10445, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10446
    26 Oct 2026, 03:37 UTC

    SAP18

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSAP18 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered68a02438449eed8b

    discovery+0.81 p=0.0087 n=9

    replication+0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.81 p 0.0087; held-out +0.02 p 0.964)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    7e38fe83d39f38a2fb21f014…
    follows 478c5f7782a3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10446: SAP18 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.43 (p 0.075, n 18), 95% CI -0.05 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.36 to +0.58, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SAP18 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.