Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10432

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.472). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10431, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10432
    26 Oct 2026, 03:20 UTC

    SLC25A20

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC25A20 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0454ef7208620737

    discovery+0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    replication-0.58 p=0.104 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.472)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7fa2339a3bde63ed57364f35…
    follows b97f08044726…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10432: SLC25A20 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.465, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18) vs -0.18 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC25A20 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SLC25A20 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.28 p 0.328 (needs p < 2.1e-4)