Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10399

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.74 p 0.024; held-out -0.34 p 0.373). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10398, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10399
    26 Oct 2026, 02:35 UTC

    USP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUSP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered71bb835e142869c1

    discovery-0.74 p=0.024 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.74 p 0.024; held-out -0.34 p 0.373)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    9059d75a92125dced1b55195…
    follows 542ba6d8ad75…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10399: USP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for USP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.