Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1037

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.187). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1036, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1037
    17 Oct 2026, 12:47 UTC

    DYRK1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDYRK1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered826b7b032606e75e

    discovery-0.48 p=0.187 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.504 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.187)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ccdf9fbc74f37fb89ffae4e6…
    follows 2663d28890c1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1037: DYRK1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18) vs -0.41 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DYRK1B in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up DYRK1B · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.13 p 0.657 (needs p < 0.0013)