Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10361

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.947). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10360, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10361
    26 Oct 2026, 02:27 UTC

    TADA2A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTADA2A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered61fce363be64a101

    discovery+0.03 p=0.947 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.947)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7b3f7aabb96ab1fbf12e5a1e…
    follows aa64b25733ca…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10361: TADA2A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.20, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TADA2A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.