Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10357

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.095). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10356, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10357
    26 Oct 2026, 02:24 UTC

    MMP17

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMMP17 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered300d82184d05c40d

    discovery-0.59 p=0.095 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.209 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.095)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b17a8e91442dd92d8b8e243d…
    follows cadd158754ad…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10357: MMP17 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MMP17 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.