Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10340

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.188). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10339, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10340
    26 Oct 2026, 02:02 UTC

    CADM1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCADM1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4a998e4ffce1231e

    discovery-0.48 p=0.188 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.188)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7a0d555f1c21ff6b2658b853…
    follows 12d836f7304a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10340: CADM1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CADM1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.