Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10320

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.689). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10319, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10320
    26 Oct 2026, 01:38 UTC

    MANBA

    microglia, braak

    predictionMANBA in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1ca29302a01bfe13

    discovery-0.16 p=0.689 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.689)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dcceab7fd5891c859fb78dd8…
    follows 388b023889cd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10320: MANBA in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MANBA in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.