Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10317

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.631). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10316, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10317
    26 Oct 2026, 01:35 UTC

    NCAM2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNCAM2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered29344b1d48a4c950

    discovery-0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.638 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.631)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    10da8843b519916d4c8348be…
    follows 659bc7dc707d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10317: NCAM2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.14, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NCAM2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.