Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10302

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10301, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10302
    26 Oct 2026, 01:13 UTC

    DNAJA1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDNAJA1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7a2ffe2f07381eb2

    discovery-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.753 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7cc0c2b97739568a94b1d88f…
    follows 366d26dd6292…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10302: DNAJA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.05, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DNAJA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.