Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10292

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.202). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10291, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10292
    26 Oct 2026, 00:59 UTC

    ARF6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARF6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered933bc5cbb9326eae

    discovery-0.47 p=0.202 n=9

    replication-0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.202)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    979b49179d73cbbb911410d9…
    follows 61bb5d78e267…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10292: ARF6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.01. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARF6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.