Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10272

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.197). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10271, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10272
    26 Oct 2026, 00:34 UTC

    ACP6

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionACP6 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered248aa98ca627451a

    discovery+0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    replication+0.07 p=0.857 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.197)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    661162199ff83d6ea50229a7…
    follows cb8ef0249713…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10272: ACP6 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.254, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACP6 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.