Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1027

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.323). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1026, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1027
    17 Oct 2026, 12:31 UTC

    FGF20

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFGF20 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7398317b9a14b46a

    discovery+0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.323)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    40bfd27f3e467bb9988be088…
    follows b77a007aedd8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1027: FGF20 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGF20 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.