Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10262

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.114). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10261, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10262
    26 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTC

    PCSK1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPCSK1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd06ae1493bb08af9

    discovery+0.56 p=0.114 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.114)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    276460283182a7ab2751e8f1…
    follows f32c2927b983…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10262: PCSK1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.142, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.28 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18) vs +0.36 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PCSK1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.