Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10252

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10251, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10252
    26 Oct 2026, 00:09 UTC

    ACSBG1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionACSBG1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered99bdbf9f4891538a

    discovery-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ad639b081b6cb7e3b3d2e8ca…
    follows c184916054bd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10252: ACSBG1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACSBG1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.