Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10216

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.303). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10215, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10216
    25 Oct 2026, 23:23 UTC

    WNT5A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionWNT5A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered03126c7c47d1d8c2

    discovery-0.39 p=0.303 n=9

    replication-0.77 p=0.015 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.303)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a6d1625268d28b0cdc146307…
    follows ecad68282cbc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10216: WNT5A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.13. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.59 (p 0.011, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.68 to -0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WNT5A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.