Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10176

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.69 p 0.040; held-out +0.32 p 0.402). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10175, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10176
    25 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC

    SAR1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSAR1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede28fa418c0fc92bf

    discovery+0.69 p=0.040 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.402 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.69 p 0.040; held-out +0.32 p 0.402)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    dddcc2d57c356da3c68614d6…
    follows 3dd3750fe9ac…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10176: SAR1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.097, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.33 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SAR1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.