Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1017

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.348). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1016, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1017
    17 Oct 2026, 12:14 UTC

    LRRC4C

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionLRRC4C in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered119d32f1d8a92d6f

    discovery+0.36 p=0.348 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.613 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.348)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a060cf754deb7b648b441e78…
    follows 7aa9f4ca8617…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1017: LRRC4C in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.12, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRRC4C in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.