Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10154

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.354). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10153, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10154
    25 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC

    ITPR2

    microglia, braak

    predictionITPR2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered47e50b6f80eb431b

    discovery-0.35 p=0.354 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.354)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5417e350592b54b1ebd0aad5…
    follows 8c22330472ae…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10154: ITPR2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to +0.00, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ITPR2 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.