Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10101

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10100, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10101
    25 Oct 2026, 20:46 UTC

    HDAC5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHDAC5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered896d63f9df350c9b

    discovery+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.150 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a5e6cf9608cd17a7f48ada09…
    follows 9ff209a4b5ad…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10101: HDAC5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.77 (p 1.8e-4, n 18) vs -0.39 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HDAC5 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up HDAC5 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.05 p 0.859 (needs p < 2.1e-4)