Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10081

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.631). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10080, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10081
    25 Oct 2026, 20:16 UTC

    HM13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHM13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd69c80c1b10f64c4

    discovery+0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    replication-0.72 p=0.028 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.631)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    37d5afc196a678e867857937…
    follows 8fef68e56a13…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10081: HM13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HM13 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.