Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1006

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.219). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1005, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1006
    17 Oct 2026, 11:58 UTC

    ADCY1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADCY1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered544248fbdab09797

    discovery-0.45 p=0.219 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.177 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.219)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    33604c0258f1a5ee02e91935…
    follows c229b7cbc572…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1006: ADCY1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.64 (p 0.0039, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADCY1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.