Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10059

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.023; held-out -0.11 p 0.770). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10058, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10059
    25 Oct 2026, 19:48 UTC

    OPCML

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOPCML in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd206ca77d98419bf

    discovery+0.74 p=0.023 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.770 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.023; held-out -0.11 p 0.770)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    672dfa0a5c79d72ed1b440f4…
    follows 85b4b2712b0d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10059: OPCML in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.17 to +0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OPCML in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.