Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10040

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10039, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10040
    25 Oct 2026, 19:26 UTC

    HAS2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionHAS2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1f5d50eb9e3eea65

    discovery-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c3f90b670e6dd72b3dbe8c05…
    follows bacda5a94935…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10040: HAS2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.21, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HAS2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.