Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10028

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.646). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10027, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10028
    25 Oct 2026, 19:10 UTC

    UBE2C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBE2C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda893fc0caf58fd26

    discovery-0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    replication-0.40 p=0.287 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.646)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    16ce4712f35783e8ae5adaf9…
    follows 69cddd897c83…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10028: UBE2C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE2C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.