Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10014

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.680). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10013, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10014
    25 Oct 2026, 18:53 UTC

    LRP4

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionLRP4 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6fdaa04e6ed16c01

    discovery-0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    replication-0.22 p=0.569 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.680)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3de98c1cec2da46eef438bc0…
    follows cb99b990d79a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10014: LRP4 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: +0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18) vs -0.26 in oligodendrocytes. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRP4 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up LRP4 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.02 p 0.929 (needs p < 2.2e-4)