Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0010

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.337). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0010
    16 Oct 2026, 14:44 UTC

    PRKN

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRKN in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5c153904e21c7bb2

    discovery-0.15 p=0.337 n=42

    replication-0.27 p=0.082 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.337)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d776419737d3b92321ee521a…
    follows c73566c507cb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0010: PRKN in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.031, n 84), 95% CI -0.43 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.21 (p 0.056, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.282, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.014, n 75). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRKN in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.