Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

USP31

ubiquitin specific peptidase 31

translation score 0.39, read 2026-10-20; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.07 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including oligodendrocytes; strongest in salivary myoepithelial cells0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
hard to drug0.00
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
1 Parkinson's papers of 350.91
pathways
Reactome
in no curated pathway0.00

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 4004

Sealed predictions

  1. USP31 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.81 (p 0.009) → -0.42 (p 0.262)receipt 4012
  2. USP31 in oligodendrocytes, braak+0.20 (p 0.607) → +0.08 (p 0.838)receipt 4011

Swarm cases

receipt 4012: USP31 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.12. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.0099, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.76 to -0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for USP31 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 4011: USP31 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for USP31 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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