Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

NLRP3

NLR family pyrin domain containing 3

translation score 0.34, read 2026-10-18; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.12 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including microglia; strongest in monocytes0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
hard to drug0.00
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
7 Parkinson's trials, 2 stopped0.77
literature
PubMed
666 Parkinson's papers of 28,738: well-trodden0.14
pathways
Reactome
7 pathways; mostly immune signalling0.90

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 2330

Sealed predictions

  1. NLRP3 in microglia, braak-0.08 (p 0.840) → -0.07 (p 0.849)receipt 2336
  2. NLRP3 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.42 (p 0.258) → -0.78 (p 0.013)receipt 2337

Swarm cases

receipt 2337: NLRP3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.05. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.62 (p 0.0060, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NLRP3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 2336: NLRP3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.07 (p 0.781, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.23, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NLRP3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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