Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

MAPK4

mitogen-activated protein kinase 4

translation score 0.53, read 2026-10-28; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.00 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including astrocytes; strongest in pituicytes/fscs0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
2 Parkinson's papers of 1130.85
pathways
Reactome
1 pathway; mostly growth signalling0.60

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 12717

Sealed predictions

  1. MAPK4 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.18 (p 0.646) → -0.24 (p 0.537)receipt 12725
  2. MAPK4 in astrocytes, braak+0.16 (p 0.685) → +0.11 (p 0.787)receipt 12724

Swarm cases

receipt 12725: MAPK4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.06, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAPK4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 12724: MAPK4 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.20, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAPK4 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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