Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

IL33

interleukin 33

translation score 0.47, read 2026-10-21; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.05 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including astrocytes; strongest in respiratory basal cells0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
compounds already reach it: etokimab, torudokimab, itepekimab0.81
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
1 Parkinson's trial, 1 stopped0.20
literature
PubMed
21 Parkinson's papers of 6,6250.59
pathways
Reactome
4 pathways; mostly immune signalling0.90

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 5359

Sealed predictions

  1. IL33 in astrocytes, braak+0.09 (p 0.825) → +0.50 (p 0.172)receipt 5366
  2. IL33 in dopamine neurons, braak+0.23 (p 0.549) → -0.21 (p 0.591)receipt 5367

Swarm cases

receipt 5367: IL33 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.21, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL33 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 5366: IL33 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL33 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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