Six readers
| reader | found | score |
|---|---|---|
| genetics Open Targets | no genetic evidence; overall 0.06 from other evidence | 0.00 |
| cell type Human Protein Atlas | cell type enhanced in astrocytes (474 nCPM) | 1.00 |
| chemistry Open Targets | hard to drug | 0.00 |
| trials ClinicalTrials.gov | 1 Parkinson's trial, 0 stopped | 1.00 |
| literature PubMed | 3 Parkinson's papers of 1,268 | 0.82 |
| pathways Reactome | 5 pathways; mostly protein handling | 0.90 |
No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 4630
Sealed predictions
- GLI3 in astrocytes, braak+0.77 (p 0.015) → +0.58 (p 0.102)receipt 4637
- GLI3 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.24 (p 0.530) → -0.10 (p 0.795)receipt 4638
Swarm cases
receipt 4638: GLI3 in dopamine neurons, braak
- power
- full sample +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
- confounder
- adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). does not hold up.
- composition
- dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). could be the mix.
- skeptic
- leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.13, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
- cell type
- strongest in astrocytes: +0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18) vs +0.01 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
- axis
- no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GLI3 in dopamine neurons.
follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GLI3 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.63 p 0.026 (needs p < 4.3e-4)
receipt 4637: GLI3 in astrocytes, braak
- power
- full sample +0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18), 95% CI +0.26 to +0.86. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
- confounder
- adjusted for sex: +0.68 (p 0.0017, n 18). holds up.
- composition
- astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.67 (p 0.0022, n 18). not the mix.
- skeptic
- leave-one-out range +0.61 to +0.73, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18). robust.
- cell type
- no other cell group does better.
- axis
- no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GLI3 in astrocytes.
case closed: nothing better to follow up.
Receipts
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