Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

GFAP

glial fibrillary acidic protein

translation score 0.40, read 2026-10-18; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.13 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enriched in astrocytes (782 nCPM)1.00
chemistry
Open Targets
hard to drug0.00
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
16 Parkinson's trials, 0 stopped1.00
literature
PubMed
968 Parkinson's papers of 25,420: well-trodden0.10
pathways
Reactome
2 pathways; mostly lysosome and autophagy1.00

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 2275

Sealed predictions

  1. GFAP in astrocytes, braak+0.43 (p 0.251) → -0.27 (p 0.489)receipt 2281
  2. GFAP in dopamine neurons, braak-0.15 (p 0.702) → +0.09 (p 0.822)receipt 2282

Swarm cases

receipt 2282: GFAP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GFAP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 2281: GFAP in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.20, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GFAP in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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