Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

GDF15

growth differentiation factor 15

translation score 0.33, read 2026-10-18; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.11 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
reachable by antibody0.45
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
2 Parkinson's trials, 0 stopped1.00
literature
PubMed
29 Parkinson's papers of 3,7670.55
pathways
Reactome
in no curated pathway0.00

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 2434

Sealed predictions

  1. GDF15 in dopamine neurons, braak+0.11 (p 0.778) → +0.15 (p 0.697)receipt 2441

Swarm cases

receipt 2441: GDF15 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GDF15 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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