Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

COL4A1

collagen type IV alpha 1 chain

translation score 0.49, read 2026-10-28; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.00 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
reachable by antibody: collagenase clostridium histolyticum, ocriplasmin0.45
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
4 Parkinson's papers of 1,1090.79
pathways
Reactome
15 pathways; mostly protein handling0.90

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 12450

Sealed predictions

  1. COL4A1 in dopamine neurons, braak+0.27 (p 0.474) → -0.72 (p 0.028)receipt 12458

Swarm cases

receipt 12458: COL4A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.18. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COL4A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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