Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

CAD

carbamoyl-phosphate synthetase 2, aspartate transcarbamylase, and dihydroorotase

translation score 0.35, read 2026-10-27; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.01 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
5 Parkinson's trials, 0 stopped1.00
literature
PubMed
100 Parkinson's papers of 65,3960.39
pathways
Reactome
1 pathway; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 12242

Sealed predictions

  1. CAD in dopamine neurons, braak-0.24 (p 0.529) → +0.09 (p 0.813)receipt 12249

Swarm cases

receipt 12249: CAD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.09, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CAD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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