Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

BAK1

BCL2 antagonist/killer 1

translation score 0.54, read 2026-10-27; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.01 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
1 Parkinson's papers of 1,0910.91
pathways
Reactome
3 pathways; mostly mitochondrial quality control1.00

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 11662

Sealed predictions

  1. BAK1 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.26 (p 0.498) → -0.69 (p 0.042)receipt 11670

Swarm cases

receipt 11670: BAK1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.04. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.65 (p 0.0033, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.63 to -0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BAK1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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