Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

ATP2A1

ATPase sarcoplasmic/endoplasmic reticulum Ca2+ transporting 1

translation score 0.60, read 2026-10-25; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 1 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.01 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
compounds already reach it: mipsagargin0.90
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
no papers tie it to Parkinson's yet1.00
pathways
Reactome
4 pathways; mostly vesicle traffic1.00
proposal for ATP2A1, translation score 0.60

Knock down and overexpress ATP2A1 in a dopamine neuron, astrocyte and microglia tri-culture; measure LRRK2 kinase activity (pT73-Rab10) and lysosome position and dopamine neuron survival after α-synuclein fibril challenge.

Cell type
a dopamine neuron, astrocyte and microglia tri-culture
Direction
Both arms: public data does not say which way helps; existing compounds already reach the inhibition arm.
Molecular readout
LRRK2 kinase activity (pT73-Rab10) and lysosome position
Functional readout
dopamine neuron survival after α-synuclein fibril challenge
Rule-out
If neither arm moves LRRK2 kinase activity (pT73-Rab10) by 20% or more against non-targeting and empty-vector controls, across three independent differentiations, the hypothesis is wrong.
Lab request
CRISPRi knockdown and lentiviral overexpression of ATP2A1 in a tri-culture of iPSC dopamine neurons, astrocytes and microglia; n = 3 differentiations; readouts: LRRK2 kinase activity (pT73-Rab10) and lysosome position; dopamine neuron survival after α-synuclein fibril challenge. Controls: non-targeting guide, empty vector. About 8 to 10 weeks, most of it differentiation.

Sealed predictions

  1. ATP2A1 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.28 (p 0.464) → +0.32 (p 0.407)receipt 10195

Swarm cases

receipt 10195: ATP2A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.11, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATP2A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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