Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

ARAP3

ArfGAP with RhoGAP domain, ankyrin repeat and PH domain 3

translation score 0.54, read 2026-10-18; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
genetic association 0.24 (overall 0.15)0.24
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
no papers tie it to Parkinson's yet1.00
pathways
Reactome
4 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 2197

Sealed predictions

  1. ARAP3 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.40 (p 0.287) → -0.46 (p 0.215)receipt 2202

Swarm cases

receipt 2202: ARAP3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.07. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.53 (p 0.023, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.65 (p 0.0033, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.68 to -0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARAP3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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