Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

AQP4

aquaporin 4

translation score 0.42, read 2026-10-18; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.11 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced in astrocytes (743 nCPM)1.00
chemistry
Open Targets
reachable by antibody0.45
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
1 Parkinson's trial, 0 stopped1.00
literature
PubMed
93 Parkinson's papers of 5,9570.40
pathways
Reactome
2 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 2503

Sealed predictions

  1. AQP4 in dopamine neurons, braak+0.47 (p 0.204) → -0.05 (p 0.891)receipt 2511
  2. AQP4 in astrocytes, braak-0.29 (p 0.456) → -0.24 (p 0.533)receipt 2510

Swarm cases

receipt 2511: AQP4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.19, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AQP4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 2510: AQP4 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.341, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.341, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AQP4 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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